31/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Back-to-Lay Croco Bay and Red All Star

2.40 Worcester: Croco Bay likes to race prominently and sometimes lead which has seen him trade low in-running regularly. He should start around 8.0 in this open looking handicap that should hopefully see him lead at some point in the latter stages to allow us to trade out for a double up.

5.05 Curragh: Red All Star looks a front-runner worth a back-to-lay bet in this big sprint field.  He should start around 14.0 so you can lay back at half those odds in-running.

30/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Back-to-Lay Shotavodka, Fire Fighting and Blue Bounty

3.20 Newton Abbot: Shotavodka is worth a back-to-lay, he won last time out over this distance of 2 mile 6 furlongs and has a great in-running history. He used to like to lead in his races but has been racing with a little more restraint of late and travelling well in to the latter stages which has seen him trade short in-running.  He should be available around 10.0 so you can lay back at 5.0.

3.50 Sandown: Rydan has been consistently trading low in-running and with winning form at Sandown is worth a back-to-lay even though he is 3lb out of the handicap.  He should start around 16.0 so you could look to lay back at 8.0 for a double-up.

4.15 Beverly: Fire Fighting has been in great form recently and looks a great back-to-lay chance. He likes to race just behind the pace and usually manages to hit the front in the last couple of furlongs that should see his price contract enough for a double-up.

5.00 Sandown: Blue Bounty likes to come with a late charge that has seen him trade very low in-running without winning. This step up to a mile should suit and at around 8.0 will make for a good back-to-lay bet.

29/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Lay My Betty, Back-to-lay Dr Irv

3.25 Bangor-on-Dee: My Betty is a front-runner worth taking on with an in-running lay.  Tony McCoy managed to get a win out of her two runs back when leading at a steady pace before kicking on in the staright but he’s deserted her today for another in the race.  She should start around 4.0 so you could try an in-running lay at 1.5 that could get matched if she opens up a lead on the others.

4.55 Thirsk: Dr Irv hasn’t been trading that low in his last few runs but there are reasons to believe today will be better.  He won this race last year off today’s mark that he has dropped down to again and Megan Carberry takes the ride today claiming 7lb to help him further.  You should be able to get 16.0+ so look to back-to-lay at half those odds.

7.00 Wolverhampton: Ty Gwr hasn’t run since last year and was beaten at 1.01 in his last race when hitting the front but veering across the track to finish second.  He has a habit of starting slowly in his races and it may be possible to get on in-running at a bigger price just after the start if he does the same again and there is an over re-action as he does finish his races off well despite his poor starts.  He could start around 8.0 so try an in-running back bet around 12.0 to see if you can get matched in running and then lay-off at half those odds for an easier chance of getting matched.  If you don’t get matched in running after the first furlong you can cancel your bet.

Chance Ectot and Taghrooda Antepost for the Prix L’Arc De Triomphe

This year’s Arc De Triompohe at Longchamp is a little over five weeks away and heading the market is Sea The Moon was impressive in the German Derby, beating Lucky Lion by 11 lengths.  Lucky Lion won a group one in Germany after that beating Noble Mission in to second on his favoured soft ground so is a worthy favourite for the race.

Treve hasn’t looked anywhere near as good as last year, her run against a returned to form Cirrus Des Aigles was good and could be excused as it was her first run back but she ran to a similar level next time out in the Prince of Wales Stakes finishing behind The Fugue and Magician.

Taghrooda is a more realistic price around 10/1 as she was half those odds prior to the King George, she looked impressive in that race and with the recent record of three year old fillies she is worth interest at 10/1 though could be even bigger on the PMU on the day.

There could well be three Japanese horses turning up with Just A Way, Harp Star and Gold Ship engaged.

Four of the last six winners have been fillies and when you consider how few enter the race it’s quite a statistic.  Prior to Zarkava’s win in 2008 the last filly to win the race was Urban Sea all the way back to 1993.

In the last twenty years only five victories have gone against the classic generation with the three year olds leading the way and it used to be a race dominated by the best three year old colts with Andre Fabre enjoying great success.

One horse I like at a big price from the classic generation is Ectot who was a group one winner at two and was favourite for the Poule D’Essai Des Poulains after beating Karakontie in the Prix De Fontainbleau, a trial for the French Guineas.  Karakontie then went on to win the Guineas with Ectot out injured.

Ectot hasn’t run since his trial race having picked up an injury but is back in training for a reappearance in the Prix Niel and then a crack at the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe.  Although he hasn’t raced further than a mile his pedigree is all stamina being by Hurricane Run the 2005 Arc winner and there could be more to come over further considering his breeding and performances over a mile.  His trainer Elle Lellouche won the Arc back in 1996 with Helissio and is pointing Ectot in the same direction after a forced summer break.

Ectot (pictured above in white, purple cap beating Krakonite) was available at 85.0 on Betfair but is now trading at 34.0 but is still available at 50/1 with Bet365 which could be a great price come the Arc day.

28/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Lay Little King Robin In-running, Back-to-lay Moulin De La Croix

2.10 Fontwell: Black Cow was beaten after trading in-running at 1.05 last time out and prior to that at 1.45.  He is worth taking on again at 1.5 in-running to see if we can get matched at a short price.

4.15 Bellestown: Little King Robin is in great form and if he was a bigger price a back-to-lay would be advised but he’ll start around 2.8 for this hurdle race as he has plenty of wins to his name.  He is a front-runner that can open up a decent lead in his races so an in-running lay at 1.4 is worth a try.

4.25 Stratford: Moulin De La Croix seems to be in great form, he won last time out and could have won the race before that when falling four out when going well.  He usually travels well in his races which should see him trade low enough for a back-to-lay, he should start around 8.0.

4.45 Bellestown: Draco will be around 1.5 for this maiden hurdle and although he is best in here by far it could be worth trying an in-running lay at 1.10 if the rain keeps coming as his best form looks to be on better ground.

27/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Lay It is what it is, Galizzi and Marchese Marconi In-running

4.35 Worcester: It Is What It Is will be a short price favourite to follow up his win only 6 days ago but is worth taking on at a short price in-running.  Prior to his last run he had been off the track for 18 month and this will second race in less than a week after a long lay-off plus the 7lb penalty for that win is reason enough to take him on and try to get matched at 1.2 in-running. He could end up winning easily but there are enough question marks with him to take a small risk punt against him.

4.45 Catterick: Galizzi has traded at very low levels in his races and will be favourite in this contest after finishing a close second at Newmarket. You could try an in-running lay around 1.7.

7.35 Bellestown: Marchese Marconi is worth taking on in-running again, he will start around 4.0 so try an in-running lay around 1.8 as he usually makes late headway which could see his price drop enough to get matched.

26/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Lay Zaitsev In-running, Back-to-lay Willowing

2.00 Ripon: Zaitsev is worth taking on in-running at a short price as he should lead and run well enough over this distance to get matched at 1.4.  Although he has winning form over this longer distance and is dropping down to a class 6 he’s been beaten enough times at short odds in similar races to take on.

5.40 Ballinrobe: Willowing is worth a back-to-lay, she likes to race up with the pace and may even lead in this contest.  If you can get on at 10.0 you can lay in-running at 5.0 as she does travel well in to the latter stages of her races well for a double-up.

25/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Lay Castorienta and Going Concern In-running

2.40 Epsom: Castorienta will be a short priced favourite in this sprint but is worth taking on at a short price in-running as she is up 4lb for a recent neck win and it will be her first time at Epsom.  If you can get matched at 1.4 you’ll be effectively on a 5/2 shot on a horse that can flatter to deceive.

3.20 Cartmel: Going Concern will carry top-weight in this handicap chase and will be joint favourite around 3.0 so it could pay to try an in-running lay at 1.5. He can travel quite well in to the latter stages making headway but doesn’t see it out so good as first impressions suggest.

4.15 Warwick: Amber Crystal was held up last time and ran quite poorly so if they put her to lead this time it could see her trade quite low as in previous runs.  She should start around 10.0 for a back-to-lay bet.

24/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Back-to-lay Welsh Sunrise and Placidia

2.40 Yarmouth: Welsh Sunrise drops down to a class 5 handicap after running well in a Newmarket handicap and at around 10.0 is a great back-to-lay as she should travel well just behind the leaders for a double-up.

4.15 Goodwood: Steeler returns to listed class and back to 7 furlongs where he has winning form.  He likes to race just behind the pace and if you can back at 6.0+ then he is worth a back-to-lay.

4.55 Yarmouth: Placidia travels very well in her races and usually makes eye-catching headway from midfield that has seen her trade very low at times. You should be able to back her at 8.0+ and lay back at half those odds for a double up.

23/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Back-to-lay Safety Check and Cootamundra

2.30 Cartmel: Bonne Fee won last time and should go close again today in this tricky looking 3 runner race. She probably is a little too short around 3.5 for a back-to-lay but it could be worth trying in-running lay at 1.5 to see if we can get matched.

2.55 Goodwood: Safety Check has been running great recently and won last time out and will be a good price for a back-to-lay again at around 20.0. American Hope was beaten at 1.01 last time out when travelling strongly and going in to a lead a furlong out but was caught late on so it could be worth trying a back-to-lay with this one as well. Look to lay back at 40% of the back price on both so if we are matched on just one we will make a profit.

3.20 Newmarket: Boite looks a decent back-to-lay opportunity and should go off around 10.0 so you can look to lay back at 5.0 for a double-up.

16.35 Killarney: Cootamundra returns to a distance that will probably suit a lot better for this horse that travels well in his races.  He's been racing over 2 mile 1 furlong recently but his best performances have come over further so is worth a back-to-lay at around 25.0.

5.35 Killarney: Marchese Marconi won last time out but generally doesn't win as often as the starting price dictates. It could pay to try an in-running lay at 1.5 on this horse that looks likely to go off joint favourite around 3.0 as he has to concede weight to all his rivals.

 Above: only just matched on our in-running lay at 1.5 on Marchese Marconi

22/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Lay Little Rocky and Potent Embrace In-running

1.45 Ffos Las: Amber Crystal looks a great back-to-lay bet, she is a front-runner that has traded below 10% of BSP in four out of 6 runs without winning and could be backed to do something similar again for a big pay-off.

3.40 York: Astaire has some great form at York and though he would struggle to beat these group 1 sprinters he has blistering early speed as a front-runner.  This drop down to 5 furlongs could well suit him better and could well lead in to the final furlong to make for a nice back-to-lay, he will be an outsider possibly as big as 30.0 on the exchanges.

4.45 Kilbeggan: Little Rocky has been opening big leads in his races to end up getting caught late on so in-running lay at 1.8 may be worth a try.

4.55 York: Master the World is a front-runner that is worth a back-to-lay bet. He should start at 40.0+ on the exchanges.

7.40 Hamilton: Potent Embrace runs in a four runner race where only he and the favourite Almashooqa look to be in contention to win this.  The favourite looks way above Potent Embrace but he is a front-runner who might be worth trying an in-running lay at even money if he does open up a lead on the favourite we might just get matched.

21/08/2014 In-Running Lays: Take on Minella Reception and Bally Longford

3.20 Ffos Las: Minella Reception tackles fences for the first time and will be a short price favourite for the victory. It could be worth trying a short in-running lay at 1.2 as he has been beaten at short prices in-running plenty of times.

7.10 Killarney: Bally Longford is another short priced favourite that could be worth taking on. He looked a likely winner last time out before falling 2 out. He’s a front-runner who is prone to jumping mistakes so it could be worth trying to get matched in-running at 1.2.

20/08/2014 In-Running Lays

1.55 York: Peterkin looks worth a back-to-lay around 12.0. He could well race just behind the pace for much of the race which will keep him out of trouble in this big field.

3.40 York: Mukhadram is a really tough front-runner who has been racing in all the top races and performing well.  York will suit his front-running style and he already has winning form here from his only visit.  You should be able to back at 8.0 to lay off at 4.0.

 

4.20 York: Statutory could well lead in this stayers handicap for which he has top weight.  He ran last time out here at York and traded all the way down to 2.04 from a BSP of 14.50 so is worth trying again; he should start around 10.0 so you can look to lay around 5.0.

4.55 York: Denzille Lane is a tough Mark Johnston front-runner who could be worth trying a back-to-lay at 20% of BSP as he could well take them along for long enough to trade quite low.  Look to back at 25.0 and lay and 5.0 for a bigger return.

 

8.50 Kempton: Anglo Irish returns to the all-weather after a stint on turf and could well be worth a back to lay around 8.0.

19/08/2014 In-Running Lays

5.40 Worcester: Temple Lord is worth trying a back-to-lay, he has some decent performances on a quicker surface which he will get again today.  McCoy is on again today so if he’s in with a chance at the end there will be plenty of punters willing to play him in-running, he should start around 10.0 so you can lay off at 5.0.

 

7.00 Leicester: Endless Credit drops back to 1 mile after racing over as far as 1 mile 4 furlongs and should end up racing prominently in this race.  He’ll be favourite around 3.0 – 3.5 so is too short for a back-to-lay but it could be worth trying an in-running lay at 1.8  just in case we can manage to get matched at a short price for a low-risk lay.