31/07/2014 In-Running Lays

The 15:45 at Goodwood is an interesting race with several group one winning horses taking in this group three for fillies.  Nymphea is sure to set the pace so should make for an in-running profit with a back-to-lay.  Waila and Talent generally sit out the back so it may be worth trying to get on these in-running.  Waila is stepping up from listed to group three but is progressive while Talent is a Oaks winner who is stepping down to group three company and if you look at her three wins to date she has traded at least five times her BSP in-running before winning those events, checkout Talent in-running.

The best in-running opportunity by far has to be Safety Check who runs in the 16:50 at Goodwood.  He has traded below half his BSP in all his 10 runs to date and last time traded as low as 3.05 from his BSP of 38.0 so a back-to-lay with split stakes at 40% and 20% of the back price is worth a shot.

Elsewhere away from Goodwood Endless credit could be worth an in-running lay in the 16:40 at Nottingham – he seems to have been supported for this race and is now the current favourite for this event. In the following race at Nottingham Bronze Bow is worth taking on in-running as he travels really well up with the pace and regularly finds himself in front going in to the final furlong to be beaten far too often.

Moulin De La Croix runs in the 15:20 at Stratford and could well be worth looking to lay short in-running if he does trade below 20% of his BSP.

30/07/2014 In-Running Lays

30/07/2014	17:30 Galway	Aupcharlie
30/07/2014	17:30 Galway	Wise Old Owl
30/07/2014	17:30 Galway	Caid Du Berlais
30/07/2014	17:25 Goodwood	Valais Girl

The 17.25 at Goodwood sees a big field for this 7 furlong event with Valais Girl and Oblitereight likely to race prominently so look good options for a back-to-lay.  Also of interest is Englishman ridden by Jamie Spencer but he usually sits out the back so look to get a bigger price in the first half of the race making for an easier lay if he does come with a late charge.

There are many highly rated runners in the 17.30 at Galway but it’s a minefield and there are safer opportunities elsewhere.

Castorienta runs in the 20.10 at Leicester and likes to race up with the pace so has great possibilities for a back-to-lay. Flogarose runs in the 14.50 at Perth and looks a good back-to-lay as she also likes to race up with the pace.
   
The best chance of the day looks to be Little King Robin who runs in the 16.45 at Galway. He has traded below 50% of BSP 19 times out of 20 so look to profit by trading him accordingly.

29/07/2014 In-Running Lays

29/07/2014	20:35 Perth	Politeness
29/07/2014	17:20 Goodwood	Apricot Sky
29/07/2014	15:40 Goodwood	Noble Silk
29/07/2014	15:40 Goodwood	Repeater

 
Continuum, Repeater and Noble Silk look sure to be held up in rear and it could be worth trying to get a big price in-running on any of these in the first half of the race to lay off later.

Apricot has been in great form recently and very reliable in running his races each time. He usually comes with a late charge and often finds himself in front a furlong out that should see his price trade low. Powerfull Wind could well set the pace and is worth a back-to-lay as well, you could play both these at 20% of the back price.

Politeness will be trading around 3.0 in the 20.35 at Perth but a 12lb rise in the weights for his last win could be enough to stop him so it may be worth doing a back-to-lay around the 1.8 mark as he should travel well enough to enable a trade out.

28/07/2014 In-Running Lays

28/07/2014	18:45 Galway	Storm Away
28/07/2014	16:15 Lingfield	Narborough

Storm Away could be worth chancing a split stakes lay at 40% and 20% of the back price.  Only once in her last ten races has she failed to trade less than half his BSP.  She currently trades around 16.0 but you could even try for 20.0 in-running through the early stages as she may be held up over this two mile event.

Narborough appeals in the 16.15 at Lingfield, he is still a maiden after 16 attempts at a first win but runs consistently well enough and has traded at half his BSP in his last twelve runs. Look at a straight back-to-lay double-up.  He is current trading around 4.0 but you may be able to get bigger in-running as he usually drops out but you’ll need to be quick with your bets as they are sprinting over five furlongs.

26/07/2014 In-Running Lays

26/07/2014	19:50 Salisbury	Suitsus
26/07/2014	15:55 Newmarket	Toofi
26/07/2014	16:50 Newcastle	Liberal Lady
26/07/2014	14:55 York	Windhoek
26/07/2014	14:20 York	Short Squeeze
26/07/2014	17:00 Ascot	Three Peaks
26/07/2014	14:40 Ascot	American Hope

American hope will most likely be ridden towards the back of the pack and usually comes with a late charge so you could either look to lay short in-running or look to back in-running if he drops out and trades a reasonable amount over BSP, his price is currently around 10.0.

Windhoek is incredibly consistent and usually races up with the pace to challenges late on so should enable a back-to-lay.

Toofi carries top weight in this handicap for three year olds and has some great form in listed and group three races but may offer the opportunity to back in running if he drops out and then look to lay back at half those odds.

Three Peaks looks a great back-to-lay who travels up with the pace and may even lead.  He will be around 30.0 so look to lay in-running at half those odds.

Short Squeeze is best avoided today over 7 furlongs.  Liberal Lady has been struggling of late so is best avoided and the same goes for Suitsus who’s last two runs have been flat.

25/07/2014 In-Running Lays

25/07/2014	17:55 Down Royal	Little Sweetheart
25/07/2014	15:30 Uttoxeter	Lygon Legend
25/07/2014	17:00 Ascot	Iffranesia
25/07/2014	15:20 Ascot	Arty Campbell

Arty Campbell will be the complete outsider in the field and will be 5lb out of the handicap but looks a worthy double-up chance. He has already traded around at 80.0 on Betfair, if you can get on at that price look to lay off at 40.0 in-running as he usually travels well in to the latter stages of the race.

Lygon Legend looks a good shot at a double-up or even split stakes as he has traded very short at times.  He travels well in his races and steps up to 3 miles for the first time today.  He should start around 10.0 so you could try a lay at 40% and 20% of the back price.

Iffranesia looks a good back-to-lay in the 17:00 at Ascot. She won last time out over 5 furlongs on good to firm so today’s race will be perfect and could win again.

Little Sweetheart has a great in-running record and it could be worth chancing a lay at 20% of the back price on this strong travelling horse.  Ability and delivery runs in the same race and could be worth chancing the same way with a short in-running back-to-lay as he has traded very low recently.

24/07/2014 In-Running Lays

24/07/2014	16:25 Yarmouth	L Ge R
24/07/2014	15:15 Yarmouth	Loving Your Work

Loving Your Work runs in the 3.15 at Yarmouth, he is up against Leaderne he should go off a short price favourite and lead. It may be worth trying to back Loving Your Work in-running at bigger odds and then look to lay-off later as he usually travels well in to the latter stages.

L Ge R looks a good chance for a back-to-lay at 40% of BSP, she should go off around 14.0 so you lay back at 6.0 in-running.

Coillte Cailin looks a great back-to-lay in the 7.05 at Lingfield – he generally sits out the back so you could get bigger in-running and lay-off as he makes his usual late charge, he should start around 25.0.

23/07/2014 In-Running Lays

23/07/2014	19:30 Naas	Flic Flac
23/07/2014	20:50 Sandown	Stellarta
23/07/2014	20:50 Sandown	Perfect Muse

Stellarta looks a great back-to-lay in the 8.50 at Sandown, she will be around 10.0 on Betfair so you could lay at 40% of her current price.  Perfect Muse is also high-lighted and comes with a late charge usually, she is too short to do a back-to-lay but it could be worth chancing a short priced lay in running lay at 1.2.

Flic Flac runs in a valuable sprint at Naas, she will probably go off around 15.0 but is a risky back-to-lay proposition as she is stepping up from handicap company to listed and she would really show her best in-running over further so is best avoided this time.

22/07/2014 In-Running Lays

22/07/2014	18:15 Ballinrobe	Little Rocky
22/07/2014	18:15 Ballinrobe	Alton Bay
22/07/2014	20:30 Bangor	C J Mackintosh
22/07/2014	18:40 Carlisle	Ingenti

Two selected horses run in the 18:55 at Ballinrobe, neither standout as great opportunities but they may be worth laying in-running if you can do it around 50% of BSP.

‘Ingenti’ is worth a shot at a short in-running lay at 20% of BSP, he has traded at less than 20% of BSP the last two runs including the last her at Carlisle. Look to back around 6.0 and lay at 2.0.

CJ Mackintosh is a non-runner.

Elsewhere, over at Southwell ‘My Betty’ and ‘Larteta’ look great chances to profit from in-running.  ‘My Betty’ will be around 3.0 so it may be worth chancing a short priced in-running lay around 1.5 while you can do a back-to-lay on Larteta who will be around 8.0.

21/07/2014 In-Running Lays

21/07/2014	15:35 Cartmel	Alaplee
21/07/2014	19:15 Beverley	Irene Hull

The better quality racing over the weekend produced great in-running trades, check out the in-runnning trading results.

‘Alapee’ was in great form over hurdles but since switching to fences has struggled to perform well enough in-running to offer any safe betting opportunities so is best avoided until he shows promise over the bigger obstacles.

‘Irene Hull’ has traded 20% below BSP in half her 6 runs so it could be worth chancing an in-running lay at 10% of her BSP which could around 7.0 so try a lay at 1.7.  I would avoid a back-to-lay bet but chancing a straight lay could pay off with a big dividend and a small liability if she does run well and if she doesn’t you’ll get your unmatched lay back.

Elsewhere ‘Mystic Lass’ runs in the 19:35 at Ballinrobe and usually comes with a late race move.  You may be able to get a bigger price in-running as she drops right out the back and then lay off in the latter stages of the race if she does come with her usual late flourish.

20/07/2014 In-Running Lays

20/07/2014	16:00 Stratford	Exitas
20/07/2014	16:20 Newton Abbot	Jackthejourneyman
20/07/2014	15:10 Redcar	Monarch Maid
20/07/2014	14:35 Tipperary	Draco

 
A great set of results yesterday with all 7 recommended selections that ran trading below 20% of their BSP.

‘Monarch Maid’ could well lead in the 15:10 at Redcar and offers a great opportunity for a back-to-lay.  ‘Tweety Pie’ also runs in the same race and it could be worth playing this one the same as it likes to race prominently. Both will be around 12.0 so there are plenty of ways to play these two who have traded below 20% BSP regularly.

The strong travelling ‘Jackthejourneyman’ looks a confident back-to-lay, he will be around 15.0 and it could be worth doing a split stakes back-to-lay on this one.

‘Exitas’ looks a good back-to-lay bet in the 16:00 at Stratford, he should start around 13.0 so you could lay back at 5.0 or 6.0.

 Exitas finishing second and the Betfair graph of him trading down to 1.52 in-running.

19/07/2014 In-Running Lays

19/07/2014	16:50 Newmarket	Englishman
19/07/2014	14:25 Newmarket	Noble Protector
19/07/2014	14:25 Newmarket	Criteria
19/07/2014	15:15 Newbury	Es Que Love
19/07/2014	15:15 Newbury	Music Master
19/07/2014	17:25 Ripon	Traditionelle
19/07/2014	17:15 Market Rasen	Owen Na View
19/07/2014	16:05 Market Rasen	Autun
19/07/2014	15:30 Market Rasen	Its A Gimme
19/07/2014	14:55 Market Rasen	Rolling Maul
19/07/2014	14:55 Market Rasen	Purple Bay
19/07/2014	14:55 Market Rasen	Slim Pickens

The 14:55 at Market Rasen sees a number of horses in the field that have great in-running records.  ‘Purple Bay’ and ‘Slim Pickens’ look to be the best of them and back-to-lays at 40% of the back price would be the best approach.

’It’s a Gimmie’ will be the favourite in the 15.30, around 4.5 on Betfair.  He usually makes headway late on which sees him trade short in-running – you could either back-to-lay or if the price is too short try an in-running lay at 1.8.

‘Autun’ makes his first appearance over hurdles and is best avoided despite his great in-running record on the flat.

‘Owen Na View’ is worth a shot at a short in-running lay. It may go off around 4.5 so a speculative lay around 1.5 could pay. ‘Traditionelle’ could be worth the same approach as he will go off a similar price and traded below 20% of BSP in half her runs and is still winless.

‘Music Master’ looks a good chance for a double-up, he likes to race up near the pace and usually leads late on. He should be around 6.0 so you can back-to-lay. ‘Es Que Love’ runs in the same race and you can take the same approach with this one.

‘Criteria’ has traded short very short recently so you could try an in-running lay around the 1.5 mark in a race she will be clear favourite.

‘Englishman’ looks a great back-to-lay in the 16:50 at Newmarket.  You can either try a straight double-up or split your stakes and also cover a short priced lay for bigger profit.

18/07/2014 In-Running Lays

18/07/2014	20:30 Kilbeggan	Rivage Dor
18/07/2014	19:55 Kilbeggan	Caolaneoin
18/07/2014	18:55 Kilbeggan	Just For Joe
18/07/2014	19:00 Pontefract	Dark Amber
18/07/2014	15:30 Nottingham	Excels Beauty
18/07/2014	16:45 Newbury	Kastini

‘Kastini’ has been going off as a market leader in recent races but will find himself a big price this time after finishing tailed off in his last race.  There is a valid excuse for his last poor run having suffered inference when making his challenge and with Richard Hughes on board this time he will hopefully travel in to the latter stage for a trade out at a low price.  Look to back around 15.0 and lay in-running at a 3.5 or 4.0.

‘Excels Beauty’ looks a good opportunity for a back-to-lay bet who should go off around 15.0, look to lay at 6.0 as she should go off with the leaders and possibly make the running.

‘Dark Amber’ has traded very short in the past and was stepped up to 1 mile 3 furlongs last time out which seemed to suit as she traded down to 1.44 from her BSP of 10.80. This 1 mile 4 furlong contest should be fine for her and if she runs her race she should challenge late on.  She currently trades around 4.0 on Betfair so maybe a straight in-running lay would be the best option if she trades down to 2.0.

‘Just For Joe’ looks a good opportunity for a back-to-lay.  He likes to lead or race up with the pace so despite being absent from the track for over a year he should avail a trade out at half his BSP before any possible lack of fitness begins to tell.

‘Caolaneoin’ looks an outstanding back-to-lay, he’s traded less the half his BSP 14 out 15 runs so looks a great chance to double up here again.

‘Rivage D’Or’ will be around 8.0 and is worth consideration for a back-to-lay that could well win.

17/07/2014 In-Running Lays

17/07/2014	16:40 Killarney	Hes Our Man
17/07/2014	19:35 Doncaster	Pipers Note

 
‘Pipers Note’ looks a good chance for a double up, he’s been in great form recently and is stepping up to 7 furlongs for the first time and generally travels well to the latter stages of the race.

‘Hes Our Man’ has traded below 20% of his BSP in his last four runs and it could be worth chancing a similar price trade again today as these are similar race conditions and he should be around 20 so you could try a lay at 4.0 or 5.0.

‘Intomist’ may be worth chancing again in the 20:25 at Epsom, he ran at Epsom two weeks ago and was beaten in to second after trading down to 1.04 in-running from a BSP of 6.60.  He travels really well just behind the leaders in his races and he could trade low before hitting the uphill finish in last furlong. He should go off around 10.0 so could be worth a lay around 2.5.

Defense Council Sits Out Again

For the fourth time in five races Defense Council has refused to race and planted himself in the stalls in the 14:30 at Catterick.  A cynical lay if anyone saw it happening again!

16/07/2014 In-Running Lays

16/07/2014	19:25 Worcester	My Nosy Rosy
16/07/2014	18:45 Killarney	Pekoe
16/07/2014	18:10 Killarney	Willowing
16/07/2014	16:20 Uttoxeter	Roll On Ruby
16/07/2014	18:00 Sandown	Groundworker
16/07/2014	16:10 Lingfield	Tahchee

‘Tachee’ runs at Lingfield in the 16:10 and looks a good opportunity to double up with a lay back at 40% or 50% of the back price.

‘Groundworker’ has a great in-running record and should come with his usual late charge to trade down and possibly win.

‘Roll On Ruby’ is consistent and should run her race in her first handicap. This horse should be around the 8.0 mark so look to lay off at half those odds.

‘Willowing’ has traded below 10% of her BSP 4 times out of 8 losing runs so this angle could be worth considering with this horse.  She may go off around 10 and if she travels well in the race and makes the lead late on, she could well offer a trade out at 2.0 for a nice profit.

‘Pekoe’ may be worth a speculative shot at a low trade.  Last time she dropped down to 6 furlongs on good to firm and found it too hot to get on terms but prior to that ran well over 7 furlongs.  This race is over one mile and half a furlong so should suit and give her the opportunity to possibly lead late on.

‘My Nosy Rosy’ has a great in-running record but will be a short priced favourite to win this event.  It may be worth taking her on as a short price lay if she does trade low as the as she is still winless in 11 runs under rules and is prone to jumping errors.

15/07/2014 In-Running Lays

15/07/2014	21:00 Killarney	Bally Longford
15/07/2014	20:30 Killarney	Close Review
15/07/2014	19:40 Thirsk	Native Falls
15/07/2014	16:30 Beverley	Real Tigress
15/07/2014	16:30 Beverley	Zaitsev
15/07/2014	15:30 Beverley	New Tarabela
15/07/2014	17:15 Bath	Douneedahand
15/07/2014	16:45 Bath	Extrasolar
15/07/2014	15:15 Bath	Bahamian Heights

‘Bahamian heights’ has been running great lately and will love the firm ground. This will be his first run in handicap company but despite carrying top weight he should enjoy a good run and possibly lead in this lower grade race for a successful trade.

The drop down to 5 furlongs seems to have suited ‘Extra Solar’ well with a win at Salisbury over good to firm 2 runs back and last time when trading as low as 2.42 from a BSP of 34.15.  He usually makes a late charge which should see his drop for a trade out to double up.

‘Douneedahand’ has been running exclusively on the all-weather of late but does have some good performances on turf including a win here at bath.

‘New Tarbela’ very rarely travels well in his races and is quite often pushed along early in his races but does stay on and this step up to 2 miles should suit.  It could pay to try and get on in-running in the first half of the race if he is being pushed along and his odds drift out and then look to lay off if as usual he stays on.

‘Zaitsev’ has traded below half his BSP in his last 12 runs and would be one of the best chances of the day for a double up.  While ‘Zaitsev’ should lead the race ‘Real Tigress’ if running her race will be challenging late on so it could be worth playing both these at around 40% of BSP.  If only one of them hits the target price then you will be in profit but if both do then even better.

‘Native Falls’ should lead in the 19:40 at Thirsk and give the opportunity to trade out for a profit.

Prestige Vendome and La Hoguette Interesting at Chantilly

Shifting Power who finished fourth in the English Two Guineas and second in the Irish equivalent runs in the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly and may be a bigger price on the PMU than the 5/2 with English bookmakers if you fancy him. It’s worth keeping an eye on the French pools to see what price he’s likely to go off at as sometimes the Hannon horses can go off quite short as they are familiar with him and the success he has going over to France.

Prestige Vendome returns back to a mile after trying the French derby over 10.5 furlongs over ground that was a little too quick for him.  He was just beaten a neck in the French Two Thousand Guineas by Krakonite on good to soft and finished a length behind Ectot in the group one Criterium International at Saint-Cloud on heavy so ground will be fine for him while Charm Spirit and Shifting Power would like better ground.  He is currently below the 3-1 mark on the PMU but available at 5/1 with the UK bookies and a little smaller on Betfair.

La Hoguette is currently only 6.1 on the PMU but 16 on Betfair; she is another who will relish the currently heavy ground.  It’s quite a step up for her but she recently finished second to Fintry in a group two on good but her best performances have come on soft ground, the race starts at 13:50 GMT.