Today sees some really competitive racing with lots of top rated in-running horses highlighted in our ‘In-running Ratings’ page at Newmarket but it could pay to avoid these tough races and concentrate on some of the small meetings today for in-running trades.
4.45 Haydock: Galizzi steps up to 1 mile 6 furlongs after some decent efforts at 1 mile 4. He travels well in his races that we should be able to trade out at half the back odds even if the extra distance does find him out at the end. Look to back at 10.0 and lay off at 5.0 in-running.
6.10 Dundalk: Arriana drops down in class after a couple of efforts in listed company. Last time out she found trouble in-running here at Dundalk having looked a likely winner when trading down to 1.4 in-running so will be looking to take this nursery which looks a lot easier. She’s quite short in the betting but looks to have a lot in her favour to go very close and possibly win; look to back at 5.0 and lay off at 2.5 in-running.
Hi, how do you work put the star ratings. I've sat for four days trying the maths but I can't fathom it out. Been following for a while and so impressed.
ReplyDeleteSorry did not expect that to post apologies for it being short.
ReplyDeleteI have been doing these for quite a while the two to five stars on a back to lay strategy that I worked out from your results. However I can't work out how you come to the star rating , messed about with the maths but can't get it
Hi Paul, the rating is based on how the horse has traded in-running across the four price percentage bands. Further weighting is given to how many runs the horse has had - if the horse has had less than 5 runs it isn't rated at all but the more runs it has means a greater level of consistency of the results across the runs so this rated a little higher.
ReplyDeleteIf a horse has a high win rate this is rated as a slight negative but a horse that doesn’t win very often is given a slightly higher rating. I adjusted the rating system slightly on Friday to not make a winning horse such a negative as what it was. This has resulted in higher ratings for horses that have a high strike rate.
I’m not happy with the initial results as it’s highlighting too many selections but it was on a really busy day’s racing with lots of horses that had traded low in-running coming together in big fields. I’m going to watch how does over the next few days but I think I’ll moving back more to how it was before as the results prior to the 26th have been good.
It's trying identify horses that run better in-running than what the final result will be. Horses that trade low in-running but don't win that often. I use it to identify these horses and they are usually strong travelling types or front-runners and if the race conditions suit these are the ones I trade on.
Saturday's results were a lot better after seeing the new uploaded prices traded. There were 34 selections highlighted and 24 of them traded below half their BSP. It's still highlighting too many selections but the results were consistent.
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